网友评论:九城欲免费运营《魔兽世界》,可能么?

新闻来源:我的热蛋游戏评测
风传，wow要在国服免费运营了。问题是，这可行么？
前些天看到过一些关于9城希望把wow免费运营的 言论，不过从没有把它们当回事，毕竟9城也算是一个老资格的运营商了，不会真的犯如此低级的错误吧；没想 到我还真是高估了他们：wow中国服务器要免费运营的消息，都传到一些国外媒体上去了。看Tobold的MMORPG Blog上的这则新闻：

Free-to-play World of Warcraft in China (在中国免费玩WOW)

Graktar alerted me to the news, and I found a nice summary from Cameron at Random Battle: The CEO of The9, the Chinese distributor of World of Warcraft made some comments about the possibility of WoW going free-to-play in China, then had to backtrack and call it all rumor and speculation from the media.

As Chinese players only pay about 6 cents per hour to play WoW, and few of them play the 250+ hours per month you’d need to end up paying $15 a month, Chinese subscribers are a lot less profitable than US and European subscribers. The third quarter sales report from The9 showed that the company had a net revenue of US$ 42.2 million. Assuming 5 million players on the Chinese servers (note that the fabled Chinese gold farmer is *not* playing on a Chinese server, but on a US/Euro one for $15 a month), The9 is making less than $3 per player per month of profit, after paying for the servers and giving Blizzard their share.

Now how going free-to-play would make *more* than US$ 42.2 million per quarter of profit I don’t understand. Free-to-play is a great business model if you have a game that just wouldn’t sell with a monthly or hourly fee. But if you already have 5+ million players, chances are that going free-to-play isn’t going to add all that many more of them. So now you need to find a way to make each Chinese player voluntarily pay more than per month than he currently does. What exactly are you selling him? Epics? Gold? Scrolls that buff your xp / gold gain for 1 hour (these are very popular in other games)? Other games have non-paying players wear particularly bland clothes, while the good-looking clothes cost money, but in how far would that be compatible with World of Warcraft’s gear model? Or would you add advertising into the game, billboards in Ironforge, and the possibility to buy an ingame Toyota Tacoma mount?

So I think the free-to-play idea is stillborn. In fact I’d rather see the Chinese business model of paying a couple of cents per hour introduced for World of Warcraft in the US and Europe, now that the game is past it’s peak here. A pay-per-hour model would enable people who aren’t playing that much as before to justify keeping their account alive. I can tell you that when I was still paying for my WoW account after practically having left it in April, it was annoying to see the credit card charge when I hadn’t logged on more than a few minutes per day, and that not every day. And even that isn’t likely, we’ll probably be paying a monthly fee until the servers shut down one day. Free-to-play is a business model which can’t be introduced later into an existing game with a monthly fee without problems, as it requires the game design to be wrapped around the business model.

看样子也是无风不起浪，9城十有八九是跟Blizzard谈过这事了。不过从国内外媒体上的态度上来看，大多数人还是把9城骂了个狗血淋头。一般来说免费 运营一款网游，广大玩家倒也不应该如此抵制；但这次不一样，这次要免费运营的恐怕是世界上最不适合免费运营的游戏之一：《魔兽世界》。一旦免费运营起来， 恐怕这款Blizzard的精品游戏也就这样给毁了。原因分析如下：

1.外挂问题。我认为现如今在WOW里面之所以外挂能够得以控制，一方面是Blizzard的对待外挂的强硬态度，另一方面则是游戏帐号本身的价值。每一 个新号都需要价值人民币30元的CD key来激活，更何况到达一定等级之后所付出的时间、精神以及Money。利用外挂来作弊本身承担的风险（被封号）恐怕比作弊所得还要重要的多。而若是换 作免费运营，外挂作弊者们所付出的代价就少的多了。放眼国内所有免费运营的游戏，外挂现象能够得以控制的游戏少之又少。因此若是wow免费运营，外挂问题 首当其冲。

2.收费制度与平衡性问题。说是免费运营，恐怕醉翁之意仍在钱吧。以9城的本意，多半是在考虑道具收费的法子；但到底要贩卖何种道具，怎样收费呢？出售金 币？必定会导致WOW里面经济系统的崩溃（现在游戏里面金币贬值的速度已经很快了）；出售装备？那估计没人再闲着没事Farm副本或者打战场了；出售一些 新设计的物品比如原地复活卷轴、传送卷轴？以后副本组队，都来一句“要求能够原地复活，节省Farm时间！”……恕在下想象力匮乏，实在想不出别的什么来 了。只不过这样一来，将置Blizzard的“严禁虚拟道具交易”的原则于何地？将置Blizzard最为重视的“平衡性“原则于何地？

3.运营盈利与游戏寿命问题。将一款网游免费运营，其实有点Sky打魔兽—— 一波流（我自己编的，大家别较真哈）的意思。怎么说呢，花钱的玩家，会很快拿到自己想要的东西，很快就会没有“追求”而不再继续玩这款游戏；而不花钱的玩 家呢，反正你永远也别想从他们手里拿到一分钱，他们玩多久也没关系：等花钱的玩家都走光了，你还赚个P!所以现在很多免费运营的网络游戏，多数存了赚一票 走人的想法，可能现在嚣张的很，但我看不到他们的前途（休闲类、非“唯装备”类除外）。盛大和巨人，一个不断接新游戏，一个不断推出新游戏，赚一票之后换 个游戏继续赚；可问题是9城，只靠一个WOW撑着，你敢冒这么大风险让WOW只赚一票么？

4.服务器问题。我相信一旦免费运营，中国的wow玩家会增加不少；但问题是你9城的服务器，能承受的了么？以现在的情况看，已经有不少区服出现Lag状况了，要是当真增加了大量玩家，你的服务器不会挤暴啊……

5.最关键的问题是，Blizzard会同意么？会给你技术支持么？你不珍惜WOW，他们可珍惜的很呢！